Friday, July 19, 2013

Projections for 2013 NCAA Men's Cross Country Championships

In the midst of failed drug tests, A standards met, or not met, and the hustle and bustle of the Diamond League and European track circuit for the pros, there are thousands of NCAA Cross Country runners putting in mile after mile in preparation for the upcoming season. In order to clear my mind from all of the cheating pros, I felt inspired to want to get a better grip on the season ahead of us. So, I was off researching and studying for the 2013 Cross Country season. I then spent the next 16 hours studying and putting together this post. It took some serious time, but I feel confident in how I have determined the teams that I feel will be going to XC Nats and the individuals that I feel will go without their team. Basically, what you have before you is a Wood Report simulation of the 2013 NCAA Men's Cross Country Championships complete with the 31 teams that I feel, right now, would qualify out of their region for the championships.

After I post the simulation of the 2013 NCAA Women's Cross Country Championships (yes I'm doing the women's side this year) I will be individually previewing the top 31 teams in the country. Every day will feature a new team starting from 31 down to the number one team in the country on both the Men's and Women's side.

PlaceNameTeamPoints
1Lawi LalangArizona--
2Kennedy KithukaTexas Tech--
3Anthony RotichUTEP--
4Paul ChelimoUNC-Greensboro--
5Eric JenkinsNortheastern--
6Tom FarrellOK State1
7Kemoy CampbellArkansas2
8Shadrack KipchirchirOK State3
9Stanley KebeneiArkansas4
10Chris O'HareTulsa5
11Craig LutzTexas6
12Luke CaldwellNew Mexico7
13Andrew ColleyN.C. State8
14Peter OkweraTennessee--
15Futsum ZienasellassieN. Arizona9
16Parker StinsonOregon10
17Andrew SpringerGeorgetown11
18Scott FaublePortland12
19Jake HuryszColorado13
20Ross Millington New Mexico14
21Ryan DohnerTexas15
22Brian ShraderN. Arizona16
23Tylor ThatcherBYU17
24Paul KatamUNC-Greensboro--
25Wade MeddlesE. Kentucky18
26Jakub ZivecFlorida State19
27Lane WerleyUCLA20
28Joseph ManilafashaOK State21
29Ed CheserekOregon22
30Soufiane BouchikhiE. Kentucky23
31Chris BendtsenPrinceton24
32Matt GillespieIona25
33Pierce MurphyColorado26
34Erik OlsonStanford27
35Solomon HaileArkansas28
36Kirubel ErassaOK State29
37Blake TherouxColorado30
38Martin HehirSyracuse31
39Nate JewkesSouthern Utah--
40Mohamed HreziIowa State32
41Martin GradyNotre Dame33
42Shane MoskowitzOK State34
43Ben SaarelColorado35
44William KincaidPortland36
45Alejandro Arroyo YaminPrinceton37
46Matt JohnsenLamar--
47Connor WinterColorado38
48Matt McElroyN. Arizona39
49Kyle KingVirginia40
50Jannis TopferIllinois--
51Shane QuinnProvidence--
52Jake SienkoColumbia41
53Tyler UdlandPrinceton42
54Jeramy ElkaimOregon43
55Drew JordanWash. State--
56Leoule DegfaeVA Tech44
57Ammar MoussaColorado45
58Thomas AwadPenn--
59David PerryPortland46
60Nathan WeitzN. Arizona47
61Dustin FayUCLA48
62Ezekiel KissorioTexas Tech--
63Joe WhelanSyracuse49
64Andrew BerberickStanford50
65Zak SeddonFlorida State51
66John SimonsMinnesota--
67Ryan PolandOklahoma--
68Bernie MontoyaArizona State--
69Jacob ThomsonN.C. State52
70Thomas GruenewaldBYU53
71Max StranevaSyracuse54
72Caleb RhynardMich. State55
73Jason WittBYU56
74Daniel ClorleyIona57
75Jake LeingangOregon58
76Marc ScottTulsa59
77Ty McCormackAuburn60
78Conner PeloquinBYU61
79Yonas TesfaiHouston--
80John MascariIN State--
81Curtis CarrBYU62
82Brandon LordGeorgia63
83James LeakosHarvard--
84Hugh DowdyColorado64
85Danny ThaterTulsa65
86Jacob SmithWashington66
87Mac FleetOregon67
88Alex HatzWisconsin--
89Ed CrawfordN.C. State68
90Matthew MelanconOregon69
91Patrick RonoArkansas70
92Isaac SpencerTexas A&M--
93Maksim KorolevHarvard--
94Edward LimoCentral Arkansas--
95Elmar EngholmNew Mexico71
96Brian KingGeorgetown72
97Sam McEnteeVillanova73
98Thijs NijhuisE. Kentucky74
99Andrew GardnerWashington75
100Natan ReuterKennesaw State--
101Nik BuhnerAuburn76
102Jim RosaStanford77
103Thomas CurtinVA Tech78
104Jonathan NelsonBYU79
105Thomas PorterVirginia80
106Jake KildooNotre Dame81
107Sam PonsPrinceton82
108Mark BeamsMichigan83
109Lucas BakerGeorgia84
110Sam ParsonsN.C. State85
111Darren FahyGeorgetown86
112Adam BitchellNew Mexico87
113Craig NowakOK State88
114Matt McClintockPurdue--
115Jack BoyleColumbia89
116Robby NiermanIndiana--
117Caleb HooverN. Arizona90
118Tyler StutzmanStanford91
119Mark PinalesTexas92
120Cliff NielsonUtah Valley--
121John PopeAmerican--
122Sean McGorty Stanford93
123Joe RosaStanford94
124Ole HesselbjergE. Kentucky95
125Mark ParrishFlorida96
126Robert DomanicMississippi--
127Walter SchaferNotre Dame97
128Fabian ClarksonOK State98
129John LawsonUCLA99
130Filip JalovyEast Tenn. State--
131Conner RogVirginia100
132Nick RyanSyracuse101
133Kane GrimsterAuburn102
134Steve FlintBYU103
135Mike MovermanDuke--
136Sam MuellerAuburn104
137Jordan WilliamszVillanova105
138Jimmy ClarkFlorida106
139Sean StamNew Mexico107
140Glen YarhamFlorida State108
141Michael MansyN.C. State109
142Robert KrebsPortland110
143Robert DenaultVillanova111
144Kris MoranNotre Dame112
145Robby CreesePenn State--
146Jake ByrneIona113
147Rich PetersBoston U.--
148Daniel VertizTexas115
149Danny MartinezPortland116
150Sam EvansNew Mexico117
151Drew PaisleyVirginia118
152Cale WallaceArkansas119
153Daniel HerreraUCLA120
154Daniel EverettColumbia121
155Brian AtkinsonDuke--
156Kieran ClementsIona122
157Brian DixonSo. Illinois--
158Bryant BlahnikFlorida State123
159Tony SmoragiewiczMichigan124
160Mason FerlicMichigan125
161Pat ZachariasNew Mexico126
162William KellerTemple--
163Tim FreriksN. Arizona127
164Nick LinkN.C. State128
165Tim RackersTulsa129
166Scott MillingNotre Dame130
167Henry WynneVirginia131
168Meron SimonWashington132
169Ben MaloneVillanova133
170Thomas MaddenVirginia134
171Kevin JohnsonFlorida State135
172Brady TurnbullTexas136
173Miles SchoedlerGeorgetown137
174Griffin JaworskiAuburn138
175Dennis HodappTulsa139
176Edward KemboiIowa State140
177Thomas GrahamStanford141
178Ryan KuhnsVA Tech142
179Matt McDonaldPrinceton143
180Brendon BlacklawsMichigan144
181Ben DeJarnetteOregon145
182Martin ClevengerNotre Dame146
183Nohe LemaUCLA147
184Eddie OwensPrinceton148
185Gabe GonzalesKansas--
186Aaron BeattieWashington149
187Andrew KowalskyIona150
188Sergey SushchickhUCLA151
189Charles SparksGeorgia152
190Alex TullyVillanova153
191JL HinesFlorida154
192Ryan HagenVA Tech155
193Alec BaldwinIowa State156
194David MadrigalMich. State157
195Taylor GillandVirginia158
196Dusty SolisVillanova159
197Ryan UrieSyracuse160
198Max DarrahGeorgetown161
199Patrick DouglasUCLA162
200Morsi RayyanMichigan163
201John GregorekColumbia164
202Robert MolkeSyracuse165
203Josh GraciaFlorida State166
204Ben FurchtGeorgetown167
205Ben CarruthersMich. State168
206Charles GrethenGeorgia169
207Connor MoraMichigan170
208Cody ReedN. Arizona171
209Eduardo GarciaFlorida172
210Mitch MalloryN.C. State173
211Grant PollockVA Tech174
212Alex WilsonMich. State175
213David FlynnArkansas176
214Adam PalamarTulsa177
215Andrew PalmerSyracuse178
216Sid VaughnGeorgia179
217Charlie McDonaldPortland180
218Andres ArroyoFlorida181
219Blake WilliamsTexas182
220Phil DuncanFlorida183
221Brian WelchVA Tech184
222Nico CompostoColumbia185
223Reed PayantMich. State186
224Mike O'DowdIona187
225Mads TaersboelE. Kentucky188
226Tyler KingWashington189
227Jack ManesiotisFlorida190
228Grant NykazaFlorida State191
229Brad HortGeorgia192
230Brian BasiliVillanova193
231Patrick LesiewiczNotre Dame194
232Christopher StogsdillIona195
233Nathan BurnandMich. State196
234Amos KosgeyE. Kentucky197
235Scotty AlbaughMichigan198
236Aaron NelsonWashington199
237Yosi GoasdoueE. Kentucky200
238Gareth GilnaWashington201
239Faulko ZauberIowa State202
240Joe KotranColumbia203
241Cullen WanarkaIowa State204
242Jonathan VitezPrinceton205
243Raymond JosephArkansas206
244Francisco HernandezAuburn207
245John MurrayGeorgetown208
246Paul RossColumbia209
247Edwin SeremIowa State210
248Ben MillerMich. State211
249Josh GoreckiPortland212
250Stephen SaylorIowa State213
251Jared BermanVA Tech214
252Zack SimsGeorgia215
253Jason MillerAuburn216

28 comments:

  1. Amazing depth to this report. Love cross country.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I LOVE the Wood report. I haven't see this detail, depth, or understanding of the athletes anywhere . . .

    Keep it up Wood! We love it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I assume that this will be motivation for:
    211 Eduardo Garcia Florida 188

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  4. Ches should be ahead of Futsum. Mcgorty should be 3rd oit of the frosh, not 7th. and Thomson is way too high up there is general

    ReplyDelete
  5. No teams outside of the state of Michigan from the Big Ten, and the highest ranked runner from the Big Ten 66 John Simons, Minnesota and 50 Jannis Topfer, Illinois. Notre Dame is the only other team from the Great Lakes Region.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Individual runners qualify out of every region. You don't have that on here.

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  7. Y'all obviously didn't read the beginning... Anyways good job and I appreciate all the work you've put in.

    ReplyDelete
  8. All of the individual qualifiers have now been added.

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  9. Nobody from the SWAC Conference?

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  10. You really don't think Wisconsin will qualify for nationals?

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  11. No Hayes or Palamar at Tulsa?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Can you include a team score for this scenario?

    ReplyDelete
  13. 1 OK State 88
    2 Colorado 142
    3 Oregon 200
    4 N. Arizona 201
    5 Arkansas 223
    6 BYU 249
    7 New Mexico 286
    8 Portland 320
    9 N.C. State 322
    10 Princeton 328
    11 Stanford 338
    12 Texas 364
    13 Syracuse 395
    14 Tulsa 397
    15 E. Kentucky 398
    16 UCLA 434
    17 Florida State 436
    18 Notre Dame 453
    19 Georgetown 467
    20 Iona 467
    21 Virginia 469
    22 Auburn 480
    23 Villanova 575
    24 VA Tech 593
    25 Columbia 600
    26 Washington 611
    27 Michigan 639
    28 Georgia 647
    29 Florida 709
    30 Iowa State 734
    31 Mich. State 741

    ReplyDelete
  14. I think you were way too nice to the Freshman here. I mean 6 freshman ahead of Craig Nowak and Darren Fahy? Really? And 7 frosh ahead of Joe Rosa. I really appreciate this list though. It's great having someone doing preseason predictions for XC.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Wow - Wisco team picked as an NCAA non-qualifier. Wisco has been Top 20 at NCAAs EVERY year since 1972. That's not a coincidence, that's a dynasty.

    Yes, the Badgers graduated a great trio and will be hard pressed to match the success of their teams of the last few years. But coach Byrne and the program as a whole get the most out of the guys they have in xc year after year.

    As a team, Wisco has finished in the top 7 at NCAA's every year since 1996. That's 17 years in a row in the top 7. 10 podium finishes in that time. Top 20 every year since 1972. By these measures, Wisco is the most consistent program in NCAA cross country, and it's not even close.

    Especially if Finnerty is granted his application to run (he lost a couple prior xc seasons to injury), I would not bet against Wisco. Finnerty 49th at NCAA xc last year and 3:59 mile. Hatz 113th at NCAA xc and 3:58 indoor mile. Brill 8:37 steeple. Schrobilgen 2nd at USATF junior xc. And a host of other guys working under the pressure to step up and carry the torch. Won't be easy...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great post on Wisconsin. You cannot count them out for conference and regionals as well.

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    2. Rob Finnerty was granted the extra year of XC eligibility.

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    3. Good news for Badger fans with Finnerty returning. Don't be surprised to see Wisco make it to NCAA's for the 42nd straight year, and beat a bunch of the teams on this list. Many cross country programs foster strong work ethic and set up their athletes to achieve beyond expectations No program does it with more consistency than Wisconsin.

      Delete
  16. Think you also forgot about Oklahoma...

    ReplyDelete
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  18. I'd just like to note that #182 Clevenger of Notre Dame should be "Michael" not "Martin." Probably got him confused with Martin Grady, another ND runner from Illinois.

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